Market outlook · The macro environment
The macro case for development land in Oregon City
Population growth, school quality, and a regional housing supply shortfall all point the same direction for this 7.89-acre Park Place listing: entitled development land inside Oregon City's growth pipeline is scarce and valuable. Every figure on this page comes from a cited public source, current as of October 2026.
38,175
Oregon City population · Jul 2025
426,280
Clackamas County · Jul 2025
3.8 mo
Portland metro inventory · Nov 2025
29,500
Homes needed per year · OHNA
Sec. 01 · Demand
Population growth
Steady growth across the city, the county, and the metro
Oregon City reached an estimated 38,175 residents on July 1, 2025, up about 1.5% from the 2020 census base of 37,593. Clackamas County grew to 426,280 over the same window, a 1.2% gain since 2020. The numbers are modest, but they compound: this is the slow, steady demand that fills new neighborhoods over a build-out horizon.
The Portland metro, 2,512,859 people at the 2020 census, has resumed growth after a pandemic-era dip. Portland itself posted its first population gain in four years in Portland State University's certified 2024 estimate of 639,448, and suburban counties including Clackamas are where much of the region's growth lands. For a developer underwriting Park Place, the relevant pressure is the metro-wide household formation that keeps pushing outward into Oregon City's growth areas.
38,175
Oregon City, July 1, 2025 · +1.5% since 2020
426,280
Clackamas County, July 1, 2025 · +1.2% since 2020
2,512,859
Portland metro, 2020 census · growth resumed
Growth since the 2020 census
U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 estimates vs 2020 census
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, Vintage 2025 (July 1, 2025); 2020 census; PSU Population Research Center certified estimate (Dec 2024); OPB, March 2025.
Sec. 02 · Families
Schools
A district that supports family-oriented development
Oregon City School District (District 62) serves about 7,247 students across 14 schools. The district earns a B− grade from Niche and a 4-star rating from SchoolDigger, which ranks it 32nd of 140 Oregon districts. For a developer underwriting family-oriented product, a district with an established, well-rated high school is a real demand factor.
Oregon City High School, the district's main high school with about 1,944 students, carries an 8/10 GreatSchools rating, a U.S. News rank of 44th in Oregon, and 4 stars on SchoolDigger (79th of 270 Oregon high schools). Gardiner Middle School, the feeder for the Park Place direction, ranks 173rd among Oregon middle schools on U.S. News. New residential development in Park Place draws on exactly this established school network.
7,247
Students, Oregon City School District · 14 schools
District rating
B−
Niche
SchoolDigger 4 of 5 stars · 32nd of 140 OR districts
Oregon City High School · GreatSchools
8 / 10
U.S. News #44 in Oregon · SchoolDigger 79th of 270
Sources: Niche (2025-26); SchoolDigger (2025); GreatSchools (2025); U.S. News Best High Schools (2025).
Sec. 03 · Supply
Supply shortage
The region is under-building against its own housing targets
Oregon's Housing Needs Analysis sets a statewide production target of about 29,500 homes per year. Oregon permitted just 14,621 housing units in 2024, roughly half the target and down 33% from the 2021 peak, and the state ranked 4th nationally in housing underproduction. Multifamily permitting hit its slowest pace in 12 years, with about 4,800 units authorized in 2024.
In the Portland metro, months of inventory held below four months through 2025, rising from about 3.1 in April to 3.8 by November, a supply-constrained reading. The median sale price was about $555,000 in July 2025, up 0.9% year over year. Metro, the regional government, estimated in 2022 that the region needs 295,000 additional housing units by 2040.
Clackamas County authorized 1,235 new private housing units in 2025, and the county's own Comprehensive Plan cites strong housing demand amid a dwindling supply of residentially-zoned land. That is the key factor for this opportunity: the scarce input in the region's housing equation is not demand, it is entitled land.
Oregon housing production, annual
Oregon Housing Needs Analysis (DAS, 2026) · 2024 permits via Willamette Week, Feb 2026
Portland metro months of inventory, 2025
RMLS Market Action reports, 2025 · months of supply
295,000
Additional housing units the metro needs by 2040 · Metro Resolution 37593 (2022)
Sources: Oregon Housing Needs Analysis (DAS, 2026); Willamette Week, Feb 2026; RMLS Market Action reports, 2025; Metro Resolution 37593 (2022); U.S. Census Bureau building permits via FRED, 2025; Clackamas County Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 6.
Sec. 04 · The listing
Why it matters here
Three threads tie the macro case to 16868 S Livesay Rd
The regional numbers only matter to this listing if they connect to the ground. Here is how they do, briefly. The full arguments live on the pages linked below.
Demand pressure, family-friendly schools, and a supply shortfall are the macro backdrop. The entitlement progress next door and the seller's timeline are the micro timing. Both point to the same conclusion: entitled development land in Oregon City is scarce and valuable right now.
Read the sourcing before you underwrite
Figures are cited, dated, and subject to change
Every figure on this page comes from the public source named in its caption and is current as of October 2, 2026. Population, permit, inventory, price, and rating data change over time, so verify current figures with the original sources before making any decision. The City of Oregon City is the official source for planning matters, including the Park Place Concept Plan, annexation, and zoning. Nothing on this page is an approval, and no figure here is a promise of future performance.
- All figures cited to named public sources with dates
- Data current as of October 2, 2026, and subject to change
- City of Oregon City is the official source for planning matters
- Buyers must verify all information, including future density
Talk it through
Bring the market case to the table
Danielle Bade is a Principal Real Estate Broker with more than 17 years in sales and negotiation, and her team pairs that with Scott Bade's 25+ years of residential and commercial construction experience. Call or text to walk through the data, the planning record, and how this 7.89 acres sits inside it.
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